Up until recently, Democrats’ greatest fear regarding the 2024 youth vote was that voters in the millennial and Gen-Z generations might not turn out in large enough numbers to reelect Joe Biden because they were so dissatisfied with our aging president.
The 2024 presidential race shouldn’t be particularly close. Joe Biden’s opponent, Donald Trump, is a bigot, a liar, and a fraud who has been connected to multiple credible allegations of sexual assault.
He has also openly admitted to having authoritarian goals, a terrible history of supporting sadistic racism in both his words and policies, and 92 pending felony charges.
A recent survey finds that former President Donald Trump leads President Biden by 4% nationwide, bolstered by a significant one-year shift in support from the black and Hispanic communities.
In the most recent Emerson College poll, which was released on Wednesday, Trump leads 47% to 43%. In only a year, Biden’s advantage among usually Democratic-leaning minority groups has decreased dramatically.
After all, the largest and fastest-growing segment of the Democratic base during the previous election was made up of young voters. However, surveys of public opinion are now starting to reveal a much more horrifying possibility: Donald Trump might win the youth vote in the upcoming election.
Furthermore, it’s becoming more obvious that “the kids” might actually be swing voters rather than apathetic Democratic base voters who might be scared into voting by the possibility of Trump’s comeback, even if that threat is overstated or reversible.
In early November, New York Times/Siena College polls indicated that Trump was leading in four of the six swing states; however, additional signs of Biden’s electoral danger quickly surfaced. The president’s advantage over Trump in head-to-head matches is decreasing: In all but two of the most recent polls conducted this month by 13 different pollsters, Biden’s standing is lower than it was in their earlier surveys.
Additionally, the Republican has begun to gather momentum even though polls indicate that most of the movement is coming from voters switching from Biden to Trump, even though they may remain undecided. Now more than at any other time in the previous year, Trump has a larger vote share according to the average national poll.
The former president’s Republican party is now controlled by a small but mighty group of voters with extremely unpopular social views, especially in regard to abortion. These views have caused the Republicans to lose almost all significant elections since the summer of 2022. Few politicians have ever been as unpopular as Trump, and few campaigns have seemed as determined to enrage and alienate voters as the Republican party’s. Voters despise them and reject their vision for the US.
According to a Times poll, Trump’s popularity among black voters has increased by 22% since 2020.
Surveys have repeatedly indicated that voters’ top concerns are related to the economy, particularly inflation and high-interest rates. However, it is unclear what is causing the sharp swing in support among minorities.
Biden won the popular vote in 2020 by a margin of 4.5%, but he won the swing states by much smaller margins, which gave him the advantage in the Electoral College.
Pew’s Validated Voters Analysis
Biden won the support of under-30 voters in 2020 by a margin of 59 percent to 35 percent, according to Pew’s verified voters analysis, which is far more accurate than exit polls. In fact, Biden won by a margin of 55 percent to 43 percent among voters in the 30- to 49-year-old age group. Pew reports that in 2016, Hillary Clinton won 58 percent of voters under 30 and 51 percent of voters between 30 and 44.
Thus, two Democrats—one from the baby-boomer generation and the other from the silent generation—kicked Trump in the eyes of younger voters, even though Bernie Sanders had already kicked their asses in the eyes of younger primary voters.