Biden leads Trump in a Recent Survey, but his Margin Against Third-Party Candidates is Shrinking

Joe Biden leads Trump in a Recent Survey

Joe Biden leads Trump but falls behind Haley in hypothetical matchups, according to new poll.

A new national survey indicates that in what is expected to be a rerun of the November election, President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump by six points.

But in a field of many candidates for the general election, which also includes independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the president’s lead over Trump appears to be eroding, according to a Quinnipiac University study made public on Wednesday.

In a fictitious November contest, the poll also shows Republican nominee Nikki Haley defeating Biden by five points, but in an intense field of competitors, Biden leads the former governor of South Carolina and previous ambassador to the United Nations by a narrow margin.

According to the survey, Joe Biden and Trump are the clear favorites to secure the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries, respectively.

The survey was conducted from January 25 to 29. Among registered voters countrywide, Joe Biden leads Trump 50%–44%; this is an increase from Quinnpiac’s study from December, which gave Biden a razor-thin one-point advantage.

Joe Biden leads Trump in a Recent Survey, but his Margin Against Third-Party Candidates is Shrinking
According to the survey, Joe Biden and Trump are the clear favorites to secure the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries, respectively.

Although the Quinnipiac poll gives Biden the advantage, numerous other polls from January suggested that Trump was ahead. Furthermore, Real Clear Politics’ compilation of the latest nationwide surveys indicating a rematch between Biden and Trump shows the former president leading the incumbent in the White House by 2.5 points.

According to the most recent Quinnipiac survey, Biden led Democrats 96%–2% and independents 52%–40%, while Republicans supported Trump 91%–7%.

The poll also reveals a growing gender divide, with males supporting Trump at 53%-42%, essentially unchanged from the previous month, and women preferring Biden at 58%-36%, up 10 points from December.

There is a narrative to be aware of based on the gender demographic. Driven primarily by women voters in the last several weeks, the head-to-head draw with Trump turns into a slight advantage for Joe Biden, according to Quinnipiac University polling expert Tim Malloy.

However, Biden’s edge narrows in a possible November contest including five candidates.

President Joe Biden is at 39%

The results of the poll show that the president Joe Biden is at 39%, Trump is at 37%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a Democrat who became an independent, is at 14%, progressive independent candidate Cornell West is at 3%, and Jill Stein, a candidate for the Green Party, is at 2%.

In light of the new poll, Haley will have more support for her claims made during the campaign trail that she would be a more formidable candidate for the GOP presidential nomination than Trump to go for Biden in the general election.

In a hypothetical two-person matchup in November, she defeats Biden 47%–42%, per the survey.

However, Biden is leading a field of five candidates, with Haley at 29%, Kennedy at 21%, West at 3%, and Stein at 2%.

In his third consecutive presidential attempt, Trump is the overwhelming favorite for the Republican candidacy. He won both of this month’s contests by double digits: in Iowa polls and the New Hampshire primary.

With her home state hosting the next big GOP contest on February 24, Haley will have a difficult uphill battle to win the nomination.

According to the poll, Trump leads Haley 77%–21% of GOP and Republican-leaning voters worldwide.

The president has 78% of the vote in the Democratic presidential primary, followed by writer Marianne Williamson (11%), and Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips (6%).

1,650 self-described registered voters countrywide were surveyed for the Quinnipiac poll, which has a sample error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points overall.

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